Tree
rings suggest driest year since 1725
September 23,
2002
FORT
COLLINS — One scientist's study of tree rings suggests
the
northern Front Range is having its driest year since 1725.
With
meteorological data going back about 100 years,
government
and water officials have been unable to say how
long
it's been since being this dry. This year's drought has
been
called the worst in a century.
Lee
Rozaklis, an engineer with Hydrosphere
Resource
Consultants of Boulder, was able to extend the history of the
Boulder
Creek basin to 1705 by studying trees.
"It's
fair to say this is not merely a 100-year drought. There
hasn't
been a year like this" in 277 years, Lee Rozaklis said.
"Boulder
Creek is fairly representative of most of the
northern
Front Range and most of the tributaries into the
Colorado-Big
Thompson (system) as well."
Trees
typically grow little in dry years, leaving different
degrees
of thin ringlets. Studying tree
rings, called
dendrochronology,
can yield a wealth of historical data,
shedding
light on everything from past runoff and spring
snowpack
to precipitation and climate changes.
Rozaklis
pinpointed 1725 as the driest year by comparing the
ringlet
patterns from the various trees and matching those
results
against the available historical record.
Rozaklis'
study yielded other cautionary findings. For one, he
said
there's no guarantee this drought will run its course in
a
handful of years. His Boulder Creek analysis found a drought
that
stretched 15 years during the 1870s and 1880s.
"What
tree rings suggest is there were droughts significantly
worse
than what we've seen in modern history," Rozaklis said.
Boulder
has received 10.48 inches of rain this year, 5.45
inches
less than the average of 15.93 inches.
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